Comments on The Science of Soccer Online: Penalty Kicks… By the Numbers

Hi folks! Great article! I've found a nice res...

2011-07-14T08:12:08.076-04:00

Hi folks! Great article! I've found a nice research on http://penaltyhq.com, it is a rather fresh one. They've analyzed 1000+ penalty kicks. Check out who shoots with the best conversation rates and who is the best goalkeeper. As far as I know they processed the last 5 seasons in major EU leagues. Interesting, my favourite Zlatan Ibrahimovic is in the top10 converting all of his 14

The problem is that penalty kicks can only really ...

2011-05-05T00:29:16.809-04:00

The problem is that penalty kicks can only really be expressed as a zero-sum game. What the goalie chooses is not in isolation, and he cannot do the same thing every time. The best penalty takers in history, guys like Rainer Bonhof, John Robertson and Michel Platini, were virtually unstoppable due to power and placement: what the keeper was going to do didn't concern them. I recall seeing

As a goal keepers i have heard in training that th...

2011-04-17T22:12:50.012-04:00

As a goal keepers i have heard in training that there is only a 3% chance of saving the PK, so it is actually more important to do things to psych the kicker out, though this hard to research, as you cant tell from footage whether the player is pysched out or not. The staying in the center makes sense for professionals as they can curve the ball and have more control as to keep it under the

85% of penalties are successful. This leaves 15% u...

2011-04-03T14:49:04.644-04:00

85% of penalties are successful.
This leaves 15% unconverted. I don’t know the stats but my estimated figures after watching the game for over 40 years are:
7% saved by the keeper (stopped and held, tipped over the bar, pushed past the post)
6% missed the target by the penalty taker
1% saved but successfully followed up by the penalty taker
This leaves 1% (only 1 in 100)

Staying in the centre can only be more successful ...

2011-02-10T04:14:34.082-05:00

Staying in the centre can only be more successful for so long; after a while you'll get a reputation among opposing teams as 'the keeper who stays in the middle' and they'll all start hitting the ball left or right.

I played Keeper for 24 years and have coached Keep...

2010-08-01T20:50:06.964-04:00

I played Keeper for 24 years and have coached Keepers for 10 years. Saving PKs was one of my greatest strengths. (I also stopped 5 PKs in overtime to send my men's team to a final) Many of the PKs I saved to my left were easier because the shooter opened his hips and reduced power...but not as a rule. Some Keepers guess...some stay put...I prefer to read the 4 clues every shooter gives. Angle

what are the odds of a keeper making 5 penalty sav...

2009-10-29T17:07:44.492-04:00

what are the odds of a keeper making 5 penalty saves in one game in a tournament to advance to the next round.... not too high i can tell you that but i did it. stopping penalties is my specialty. i stopped 5 in one game when we couldnt score in extra time we went to penalties. then my team missed the net and put the pressure on me. but i stopped all the shots that shootout. im 19, and my shoot

Most saved penalties are the result of poorly stru...

2009-09-04T10:17:48.245-04:00

Most saved penalties are the result of poorly struck kicks, the keeper cannot really do a whole lot, its up to kicker to miss in other words.

Ilearned a lot from this reading.

2009-07-02T21:41:21.273-04:00

Ilearned a lot from this reading.

the stats are interesting...however, stopping a PK...

2009-04-23T13:40:00.000-04:00

the stats are interesting...however, stopping a PK as a GK is an intuitive skill utilizing all of the above stategies at various times...

I agree; the American system worked, even though p...

2009-04-23T09:16:00.000-04:00

I agree; the American system worked, even though purists here hated it. Of course, my preference has nothing to with the fact that I was pretty good at this drill in high school. ;)

Every action has a reaction, shooting towards the ...

2009-04-22T20:39:00.000-04:00

Every action has a reaction, shooting towards the upper right will not insure greater success because if more and more players shot in that direction, goalkeepers would adjust accordingly.

Still, great research and great website. The most glaring statistic for me is that 85% of penalty shots are successful. What this says is that the tie-breaking system is broken. Basically a shooter

Not sure if this is a factor in the 'keeper's deci...

2009-04-22T19:48:00.000-04:00

Not sure if this is a factor in the 'keeper's decision, but a diving save will get your teammates and fans more pumped up than will a save made while standing like a tree.

This study definitely has some good perspective......

2009-04-22T17:18:00.000-04:00

This study definitely has some good perspective....but it certainly must be followed up with more detailed studies and analysis (something that i expect from a doctor.....otherwise they should've just let me do this paper).

Obviously you cant conclude that keepers should stay central or then shooters would just stop shooting centrally and eventually we'd get back to where we are. A

A soccer ball doesn't travel 125 mph, I don't care...

2009-04-22T15:36:00.000-04:00

A soccer ball doesn't travel 125 mph, I don't care who is kicking it.

Not counting the shots that miss the goal makes th...

2009-04-22T15:19:00.000-04:00

Not counting the shots that miss the goal makes this study worthless. The conclusion is that players taking a penalty should aim for a top corner--true only if they never miss! But how often do players miss the goal entirely based upon where they were aiming? I.e. if a player shooting for the top third is never denied by the keeper but misses the goal 25% of the time that is a worse outcome

These findings aren't surprising at all, and I hav...

2009-04-22T14:10:00.000-04:00

These findings aren't surprising at all, and I have always wondered why every keeper needs to dive on PKs, most just guessing a side, when they would never do the same thing when trying to make a save during normal play.

The above comment is correct in the context of a shootout or when the opposition has scouting on the keeper. Obviously any team or keeper who goes with a strategy

Staying in the middle will only be more successful...

2009-04-22T12:48:00.000-04:00

Staying in the middle will only be more successful if the kicker thinks the keeper will move. Therefore a keeper who only stands in the middle, once scoted by opponents, will succeed 0% of the time if they just stand there. Some sort of mixture with the majority of movements being remaining central would have to be the best plan from a keepers perspective.

Scientists in the Netherlands did a similar study ...

2009-04-22T12:36:00.000-04:00

Scientists in the Netherlands did a similar study about 15 yrs ago and came to essentially the same conclusions. Keepers are most successful staying in the middle and forcing the kicker to make a decision, then reacting as best possible to where the ball is kicked.